Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has issued a stark warning about the future of global security: the wars of the coming decades may be fought not over oil, but over water.

Speaking at a public event in Ankara, Erdoğan argued that the strategic importance of water is rapidly increasing as climate change, population growth and industrial expansion place mounting pressure on global freshwater supplies. He said that while the 20th century was shaped by competition over fossil fuels, the next era could be defined by disputes over access to water resources. 

“In a century where competition for power is intensifying in every field, the most strategic and valuable resource is water” - he said, adding that early signs of such tensions are already visible in conflicts unfolding across several regions. 

Climate pressure and shrinking resources

According to Erdoğan, multiple structural forces are accelerating the risk of water shortages worldwide. Climate change, recurring droughts, rapid urbanization and industrial growth are all increasing demand while simultaneously reducing available supply. 

He highlighted Turkey as a country already experiencing water stress. While the global annual average rainfall is about 990 millimeters, Turkey receives roughly 574 millimeters, underscoring the vulnerability of its water reserves. 

The Turkish president urged citizens and institutions to treat water as a strategic national asset and avoid waste. He stressed that conservation must extend beyond household consumption to rivers and broader natural systems. 

A global challenge, not just a regional one

The warning reflects a broader international concern. Rising demand for clean water is occurring at the same time as pollution and overuse reduce available resources. Globally, around 2.2 billion people still lack access to safe drinking water, and projections suggest that up to six billion people could face shortages by 2050. 

These trends are increasingly shaping national security planning and infrastructure investment strategies in many countries.

A warning relevant beyond Turkey

Although Erdoğan’s remarks focused partly on Turkey’s situation, the implications extend far beyond the region. Water scarcity is emerging as a strategic issue across Europe as well, including in countries such as Poland, where experts have repeatedly warned that available freshwater resources are relatively limited compared with other EU states. 

“Poland is among the countries with limited water resources, and during periods of drought its reserves can fall to below 40 billion cubic meters. That is a level many times lower than in the largest countries of the European Union. Locally available water resources should serve as the starting point for discussions about Poland’s optimal energy mix, rather than being treated as a problem for engineers to solve at the final stage of investment projects” - emphasizes Kuba Gogolewski, Programme Director at the Mission Possible Foundation.

As climate pressures intensify and demand continues to grow, water is no longer viewed simply as a natural resource. It is becoming a key strategic resource for every country and region - access to which determines wellbeing,  economic stability and even future conflicts.

If current trends continue, access to freshwater could become one of the defining challenges of the 21st century.

On the basis of: https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,172392,32706299,czarna-prognoza-erdogana-o-to-beda-sie-toczyly-walki-apel.html