EU countries planning the largest increase in gas use for power generation are… those with rapidly shrinking populations.
The latest Ember report reveals that Poland, Czechia, Bulgaria, and Croatia all plan to increase their use of gas in electricity generation by 2030 – despite declining populations and aging societies.
National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) often overestimate electricity demand by ignoring demographic change. Poland's NECP is a textbook case of this disconnect.
From Ember’s report:
“The EU is set to reduce its total gas demand by 7% in 2030 compared with 2023… and this downward trend is expected to continue.”
Yet the drop in demand may be even greater once real demographic trends are taken into account. In countries with fewer people and fewer workers, there is a need to assess the impact of demographic changes on the forecasted electricity demand.
Energy policy must reflect demographic reality — not inflate gas infrastructure based on flawed forecasts.
https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf
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